The Value of the Draft Pt. 5

Part 5 boys and girls we are getting serious here. This is the year 2006, the first year after the NHL Lockout. The year the Edmonton Oilers made the Stanley Cup Final. The year the Edmonton Oilers lost a defenceman and were never able to fully recover.

Lets do it!

Click here for Part One.

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Click here for Part Three.

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Click here for Part Six.

Like he said.

2006 Leading Scorers

2006 was the first year after the NHL lockout and cancelled season of 2004/05. This season signified a change in the way NHL hockey was to be played, and an increase in elite level scoring followed when five players were able to score 50 or more goals compared to the 2003/04 season which featured zero 50 goal scorers. All were first round draft picks except for the leader with 56 goals, Jonathan Cheechoo who was taken early in the second round.

The percentage of first rounders found in Table 9 drops again to 75% and this Table includes players from the obscure fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. Their prominence lowers the average draft pick to 32.35 despite there being four first overall picks and three second overall picks present.

10 of the 15 first round picks were selected in the top 5 with only one of the remaining five being selected outside the top 15.

Jonathan Cheechoo's inclusion on this list is somewhat mysterious when taken at face value. He is the only post lockout player to lead the league in goal scoring without being selected first in this draft year. Though this seems bizarre and there was little to no evidence prediction this occurrence, examining the following table explains how this was possible.

The name at the top of Table 10 explains how Cheechoo was able to lead the league in goals despite not being a first overal pick. Joe Thornton, who led the league in points, played on a line with Cheehoo and was drafted first overall. Clearly based on the 96 assists he accumulated it is safe to say that Thornton is a player who prefers to pass the puck.

Seven players that appear on this table were not drafted in the first round. This is the highest amount of the five years examined. 65% is still high for first round presence but is low in comparison to the 80% and 85% seen earlier. It is not surprising that the average draft pick fell to its lowest at 41.85 entrenching the pick in the second round.







Coming up tomorrow we have the big finale. Conclusions, recommendations, etc. No more graphs people, tomorrow its all about the words, yeeeeeeehaw!

Click here for Part One.

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Click here for Part Four.

Click here for Part Six.

Video: I LOL'd @ The Leafs

I was sent this video by a friend. It parodies that Eminem and Rihanna track that is so addictive I need to hear it three times a day to prevent withdrawal.

Making fun of the Leafs is always in fashion.

Enjoy!

The Value of the Draft Pt. 4

Okay you know the drill, this is Part 4.

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Click here for Part Five.

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My groundbreaking interview with the Pope

2007 Leading Scorers


Other than a reduction by one non-first rounder and the inclusion of a new undrafted player, the 2007 leading goal scorer list is statistically similar to 2008.

Once again, Table 7 is dominated by first round draft selections. 80% of the players were drafted in the first round and Jonathan Cheechoo was taken 29th overall which during some draft years would have made him a first rounder as well. 9 of the 16 first rounders were top 5 picks with five of the remaining six first rounders being selected in the first half. The average pick for goal scorers in 2007 was 11.72 which is a much higher draft selection than in 2009. The reason for this is the replacement of low drafted forwards from the sixth and seventh rounds by undrafted players, who must be removed from the calculation due to their unquantifiable status.

Dany Heatley is also just the second 50 goal scorer to not be selected first overall. To be fair though, he was taken using the second pick behind a goaltender so he as the first forward selected in his draft year.

Similar to goal scorers, 80% of the top point scorers in 2007, shown in Table 8, were selected in the first round. This is the first of the analyzed years that contains a 100 point scoring forward that was not a first round pick and two other 100 point scoring forwards that were not top 4 draft picks. St. Louis is the undrafted player and so far the only non-first rounder to crack the 100 point barrier. Marian Hossa and Joe Sakic were drafted in the first round, though not in the top 4. They were selected 12 and 15 respectively.

Even though there are only four non-first rounders in this top 20 as opposed to 2008, the fact that the sixth round is the second most represented round is bizarre. Despite the two sixth round payers, the average pick is 25.89 which remains in the first round. This is likely due to the fact that all but one of the first rounders were selected in the top 15. In addition, the top 20 leading point scorers from 2007 shown in Table 8 included four first overall picks, and three second overall. Over half of the players listed were selected by using the top five picks in their draft years.



Get ready for Part Five coming at you tomorrow!

Click here for Part One.

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Click here for Part Six.

The Chosen Podcast Episode One

Man I got a lot of stuff going on! This is the first episode of my brand new podcast, The Chosen Podcast, with my boy from Brock University and Edmonton Lawrence Dushenski. We talk about the Oilers, some other NHL story lines and even give you a few interesting life stories. Also be forewarned I have been sick, so my voice is not usually as sexy/nasal as it will sound in this podcast.

ENJOY!




So how was it? Please leave comments, don't be kind about them.

Nice Taylor Hall Vid

Always time to play for Chel with the kids.





In case you didn't know, Taylor Hall is a beauty.

The Value of the Draft Pt. 3

Hey there sports fans, welcome to Part Three. On the off chance that you haven't been following along (yeah right), we are looking at a basic statistical analysis of player performance as it relates to draft pedigree in the NHL from the years 2006 to 2010.

Click here to review Part One.

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Click here for Part Four.

Click here for Part Five.

Click here for Part Six.

Continue reading to enjoy Part Three!

2008 Leading Scorers

In the preceding year depicted in Table 5, an increase in the number of non-first round draft picks again occurred though this time in the top goal scorers list.

With the inclusion of no undrafted players and two players drafted in later rounds, the average pick jumps to 31.35; for the first time in the analysis the average takes place outside the first round. Again though, it must be stressed that 75% of the players listed in Table 5 were first round picks and a consistent 11 were selected using top 5 picks. The rarity of a sixth or seventh round player performing at an elite level makes them statistically interchangeable with undrafted forwards. Examining the leading point scorers in Table 6 leads to another increase in non-first round players.

Also of note, Jarome Iginla is the first leading goal scorer listed, who scored 50 or more goals in a season but was not a first overall draft pick. This is astonishing and clearly demonstrates the value associated with owning the first pick in any given NHL Entry Draft. While he was not selected first, Iginla was expected to perform at an elite level as he was drafted eleventh overall.

Another 10% drop in first round players brings the total to 65% for point scorers in 2008, as seen in Table 6. Oddly enough the sixth round is the third most represented round with two players, Alfredsson and Datsyuk. More statistical drops are evident in Table 6 with only 10 players selected in the top 5 picks and 12 in the first half of the first round. It is no surprise that the average draft selection drops to 37.2 putting the average solidly in the second round. Table 6 includes fewer first round draft picks an further analysis shows that the age of individual players may be a factor. The 2008 table is populated by many more late-20s early-30s players and less players younger that 25. This is especially prevalent in the non-first rounder outliers.

Seventh rounder Zetterberg was 28, sixth rounders Datsyuk and Alfredsson were 30 and 36 respectively and the undrafted St. Louis was 33 years old. With younger players dominating much of the scoring in 2009 and 2010 it can be said that there is evidence that points to a youth movement in elite forwards in the NHL. Much of this has to do with the lockout and subsequent implementation of a salary cap which will be discussed further in the concluding arguments.

That is it for Part 3 y'all. Hope you enjoyed it, stay tuned for Part Four AKA The year 2007.

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The Value of the Draft Pt. 2

By Dan Moser


Before we get started here lets do a quick recap. In Part One the actual topic and aims of the project were outlined. The aim is to prove a relationship between on-ice performance and draft pedigree in the NHL. This is done by analyzing the top 20 scorers in each year following the lockout. 2010 was also examined and initial discoveries were made.

Was that recap not good enough? Then click here to check out Part One. I'd recommend clicking it no matter what, it will open in a new window and will make my stats look awesome. This will also take you there.

Part Two is a little heavier on the chart side, you have been warned. HERE. WE. GO!

Let's get ready to rumble!!!

2009 Leading Scorers

Again the analysis will begin with the top 20 goal scorers from the 2009 NHL season. In Table 3, of the 17 first round draftees, 14 were selected in the first half of the first round with 11 of the players drafted in the top 5. Of the top goal scorers that are liste din Table 3, 55% were selected using the first five draft picks. The 85% rate of first rounder to non-first rounder players is consistent with the analysis of 2010.

Similar to 2010, there are three non-first rounders present in the top 20 although all were drafted players. Of the three, Loui Eriksson and Michael Cammallari, were selected in the second round, while Johan Franzen was the lone third rounder. Despite the lack of undrafted players, the average pick used to select a top 20 goal scoring forward was higher in 2009 at 14.5, which would be the midway point in the first round. In total points however there is a slight spike in non-first round picks.

Of the top 20 point scoring forwards listed in Table 4, five were not first round selections. Cammalleri is present again but this time he is joined by second rounder Patrik Elias, fourth rounder Marc Savard, sixth rounder Pavel Datsyuk, and undrafted forward Martin St. Louis. Being drafted so late and having such a large impact, Datsyuk is an anomaly in the NHL. The same can be said for St. Louis who has made his second appearance so far.

The average draft choice for total points is much lower at 24.89 but still in the first round albeit at the bottom. Although this is the average, it is important to note that all 15 first round picks were selected before pick number 25; the average is skewed by the lower picks of Datsyuk and Savard. A higher percentage of first rounders were selected in the top 5 as well at 60%.

Although the percentage of players drafted in the first round drops by 10% to 75% it is still such a large majority of players that it can be said that 2009 is consistant with 2010 in that a significant portion of the top players were drafted in the first round.





That's probably enough for today, lets drag this baby out! Stay tuned for Part Three tomorrow!

Click here for Part One.

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Click here for Part Six.