Friday, January 7, 2011

The Value of the Draft Pt. 3

Hey there sports fans, welcome to Part Three. On the off chance that you haven't been following along (yeah right), we are looking at a basic statistical analysis of player performance as it relates to draft pedigree in the NHL from the years 2006 to 2010.

Click here to review Part One.

Click here to review Part Two.

Click here for Part Four.

Click here for Part Five.

Click here for Part Six.

Continue reading to enjoy Part Three!

2008 Leading Scorers

In the preceding year depicted in Table 5, an increase in the number of non-first round draft picks again occurred though this time in the top goal scorers list.

With the inclusion of no undrafted players and two players drafted in later rounds, the average pick jumps to 31.35; for the first time in the analysis the average takes place outside the first round. Again though, it must be stressed that 75% of the players listed in Table 5 were first round picks and a consistent 11 were selected using top 5 picks. The rarity of a sixth or seventh round player performing at an elite level makes them statistically interchangeable with undrafted forwards. Examining the leading point scorers in Table 6 leads to another increase in non-first round players.

Also of note, Jarome Iginla is the first leading goal scorer listed, who scored 50 or more goals in a season but was not a first overall draft pick. This is astonishing and clearly demonstrates the value associated with owning the first pick in any given NHL Entry Draft. While he was not selected first, Iginla was expected to perform at an elite level as he was drafted eleventh overall.

Another 10% drop in first round players brings the total to 65% for point scorers in 2008, as seen in Table 6. Oddly enough the sixth round is the third most represented round with two players, Alfredsson and Datsyuk. More statistical drops are evident in Table 6 with only 10 players selected in the top 5 picks and 12 in the first half of the first round. It is no surprise that the average draft selection drops to 37.2 putting the average solidly in the second round. Table 6 includes fewer first round draft picks an further analysis shows that the age of individual players may be a factor. The 2008 table is populated by many more late-20s early-30s players and less players younger that 25. This is especially prevalent in the non-first rounder outliers.

Seventh rounder Zetterberg was 28, sixth rounders Datsyuk and Alfredsson were 30 and 36 respectively and the undrafted St. Louis was 33 years old. With younger players dominating much of the scoring in 2009 and 2010 it can be said that there is evidence that points to a youth movement in elite forwards in the NHL. Much of this has to do with the lockout and subsequent implementation of a salary cap which will be discussed further in the concluding arguments.

That is it for Part 3 y'all. Hope you enjoyed it, stay tuned for Part Four AKA The year 2007.


  1. Some goofball messed up and put a hyperlink in Table 5....

  2. This is some really strong work Moser...I'm really impressed with the level of analysis. As great as your "hilarious douchebag" style articles are, stick with this. you're really good at it.

  3. Thanks Shepsy glad you like it. Give people a certain separation between Dan Moser the guy and Dan Moser the character.

  4. That kind of separation is important, especially when you're trying to carve out a certain kind of public persona. Knowing your history of trying to make it as a sports journalist, these kinds of pieces are going to look great in a portfolio...