The Value of the Draft Pt. 6 The Finale

Welcome to Part Six. The graphs are done, this is all about analysis ladies and gents. That's right, this is the good stuff, you read this part, you can act like you read the whole thing. You can ramble off stats from this project to your buddies in the bar during hockey highlights, but if I find you did without giving me the proper credit there will be hell to pay. You have been warned!

Enjoy Part Six: The Finale!

Click here for Part One.

Click here for Part Two.

Click here for Part Three.

Click here for Part Four.

Click here for Part Five.

Conclusions

The analysis of top scoring forwards in the post-lockout NHL had proven that higher drafted forwards have a statistically better chance of performing at an elite level, especially if selected in the first 5 picks of the NHL Entry Draft. The prominence of high draft choices in the presented Tables proves the value of first round picks. Although drafting in the first round may not guarantee a team an elite scoring forward, it is the cheapest and for some teams the most viable option for obtaining one.

First round picks hold an immense amount of value. This is especially true in the case of first overall picks who have led the league in goal scoring or point scoring in each year following the lockout. It is not wise for teams in any situation to trade their first round picks unless of course they receive a player in return who is already an elite level talent. It is likely however that a returning player will not be as economically friendly as a young drafted player due to the contraints put on entry level NHL salaries. The introduction of the salary cap has made finding inexpensive talent a top priority for all NHL teams and the cheapest way to do so is through the draft. The analysis shows that teams are becoming aware of this as well. Since the lockout ended the average draft pick used to produce a top 20 scoring forward had gone from 41.85 for 10.58.

There is another lockout related theory behind the difference in average pick. Teams are capped in the amount they can spend on individual players and their teams as a whole, but the same cannot be said for staff. If correct this would mean that since the lockout, teams have been allocating extra money to scouting and development staff meaning that drafting a low performance player in the first round in less likely, and young players become ready sooner to make the just to the NHL level of play.

Recommendations

The analysis in this project raises new questions and opportunities for  further research. Examining defencemen in a similar way is the next logical step. There are half as many defencemen on a team as forwards so it makes sense to research draft pedigree of the top 10 scoring defencemen for each year.

If a proper quantifiable statistic can be proved, analyzing other positions in a similar matter could also provide interesting results. Positions can include: stay at home defencemen, power forwards, shutdown players, and goaltenders.

Age and salary are other elements which can be expanded upon further. It would be interesting to see who provides the most scoring for the smallest amount of money over a number of years and how that relates to their draft status. NHL teams are now interested in bringing in more young talent because they are the most cost effective but this could negatively affect players' careers. In their twilight years players who are drafted early and play right away may be pushed out of the league for monetary reasons. Also playing elite level hockey at such a young age may effect how long a player can stay in the prime of his career.

Another interesting draft related statistical correlation may exist between Stanley Cup Championship teams and he average draft selection ised to create them. Examining the losing team and comparing them to the winning team could as well point to statistical indicators of why each team fared a certain way. A list of the leading playoff scorers for each of the last five championship teams and where they were drafted would impact the meaningfulness of the draft. A study analyzing Stanley Cup Championship teams would examine similar statistics from a team perspective gauging organizational success rather that just individual.

Well that does it, I hope you enjoyed reading my research. If you plan on using some, part or any of my project for your own work I would appreciate it if you let me know first either via email or twitter. I'm pretty easy going but you gotta give credit where it is due. If you enjoyed reading this and would like to see more again let me know via email or twitter. If you are a member of a media outlet (looks like someone thinks quite highly of themselves) etc and want to talk to me about this work email or twitter.

Redundancy rules, peace.

Click here for Part One.

Click here for Part Two.

Click here for Part Three.

Click here for Part Four.

Click here for Part Five.

Opportunity Cost

By Dan Moser

Let me start by saying I hope my hiatus did not alienate my fan (that's not a typo). On to the message:

If you have taken any Econ classes or anything of that nature there are two things you should know: There is a lot of money to be made in Widgets and possibly a Widget factory and there is a hidden cost in everything you do called opportunity cost. Basically in terms I can understand, the opportunity cost is what you could be doing/spending money on instead of what are you doing/spending money on. If I got that wrong it is probably this Doctor's fault, we took Econ together.

For my triumphant return to the blogosphere I submit to you the opportunity cost of watching an Oilers' game on television. I feel like I need to add a disclaimer before I start. During my break the Oilers have been awful, and watching the games has been just as awful. The Oilers won last night, and in Ottawa no less, a place where they have not won since this picture was relevant in Senator fan's (are they real?) lives:

 

Anyway just because the Oilers won doesn't mean it was a great game and the first two periods really made me think there are a lot of programs I would much rather be watching. Also, I now have more respect for that blog dude Tyler Dellow and his site http://www.mc79hockey.com, not for the Colie Mail stuff (personal opinion alert but I think it was a little overblown). This site actually goes to the trouble of counting the Oilers' scoring chances during games. WOW. I counted one in the first two periods, but to be fair Oiler powerplays tend to put me to sleep. 

So, what I have done is given you a guide of what television I could have been enjoying instead of the Oilers Senators game. It took slightly less intelligence than what Dellow does but hey, we can't all be brilliant law learned people. Enjoy! 

I didn’t include sports or movies because obviously no one can say no to the last half of Twilight and Rear Window or Monday Night Football and a group of degenerate gamblers playing cards. I included two programs per viewing block because let's be honest in today's world of twittering, facespace, and the tubing of you, one TV show is simply not enough.

Seriously if it wasn't for people watching poker on TV for some reason I am 100% certain this guy would be down three fingers and in debt to Russian gangsters....sounds like a KHL player when I say it aloud.

5:30-6:00 – Shaw 107 BITE – Arrested Development. “Good Grief”, (2004), Hors d’oeuvres accompany news of George Sr., which is kept from Buster while Gob plans an illusion to honor their father. (Comedy). 

Despite not being on the air for a number of years Arrested Development has to be one of the best shows no longer on TV. FOX cancelled it, claiming that none of the characters or situations were relatable. What the f*ck does that say about Jersey Shore? That thought brings me to an unrelated point: there is only one rule on my blog, never fall in love at the Jersey Shore.

5:30-6:00 – Shaw 13 KXLY – Seinfeld. “Pilot Episode”, (1989), A woman whom Jerry met on the road is coming to town---and wants to stay with him. Laura: Pamela Brull. (Comedy).

Not the best episode of Seinfeld but when was the last time the Oilers showed up for a first period anyway. I know some people that don't like Seinfeld, they watch Two and A Half Men. Nuff said.

 

6:00-6:30 – Shaw 16 KAYU – The Simpsons. Matt Groening’s subversive, animated satire about Springfield’s hapless first family. (Animated Comedy).

The info on my cable box didn't mention which episode was being aired. Pick the worst episode of The Simpsons you can think of, I'll watch it three times then pawn the episode's jokes off as my own and tap my chest with two fingers while saying: "Pure Moser."

6:00-7:00 – Shaw 29 FOOD – Iron Chef America. “Morimoto vs. Symon”, (2005), Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto takes on challenger Michael Symon. (Food).

The description tells you nothing about the episode, I would bet that sarcastic fat guy that loves food is one of the judges. The guy wrote a book called The Man who Ate Everything. Even if the food is no good I guarantee he licks his plate clean. Claim you don't watch this? Liar.

BONUS! 6:00-7:00 – Shaw 25 A&E – Intervention. “Sandy”, (2009), Alcoholism and prescription-drug addiction are the topics. (Documentary).

Classic. Everyone secretly or publicly enjoys watching other people struggle to deal with their own problems. I lack traditional employment and own as many pairs of pajama pants as I do regular pants, but hey, at least I'm not addicted to crack.

6:30-7:00 – Shaw 16 KAYU – The Office. “Two Weeks”, (2009), Michaels’s relationship with the new vice president (Idris Elba) becomes more and more strained, but that doesn’t stop Michael from shirking work and responsibility even more than usual. Meanwhile, Pam falls victim to the new copier. (Comedy).

I'll watch any episode of The Office but this is a really good one. Nothing beats having to watch Rob Faulds in between periods like the creation of the Michael Scott Paper Company. 

7:00-7:30 – Shaw 16 KAYU – How I Met Your Mother. “The Bracket”, (2008), Barney tries to find the mystery woman who’s out to ruin his reputation, and he uses the basketball tournament-bracket template to eliminate 64 suspects, all of whom have reasons to hate him. (Comedy).

To be honest I don't really watch this show, but I have been told to. The title of the episode and premise sound promising and also that Neil Patrick Harris has excellent comedic timing.

Tough call for a second show for 7:00-7:30. Really though, what is worse? According to Jim (that’s right, Jim Belushi is still working), the insanely unfunny Two and A Half Men (jeez two shot at Two and A Half Men in on blog? Sorry Chuck, I owe you a drink), or a Hemsky-less Oilers' game that is being billed as a return to Ottawa for third string goaltender Martin Gerber and a return to Ottawa for Jordan Eberle who once played in a hockey tournament in Ottawa, which really begs the question of how the media will react to my return to Beaumont, AB, a place where I once played a hockey tournament. 

Red font for the sake of red font.

7:30-8:00 – Shaw 11 CJEO – The Simpsons. “Make Room for Lisa”, The Simpsons are forced to house a cellular transmitter, giving Lisa stress, while Marge hears calls through Maggie’s baby monitor. (Animated Comedy).

A weak episode but still good for a few laughs. Homer gets his head crushed by a bridge, Lisa takes a bus to the Russian district of Springfield, Marge hits Milpool with a baby monitor, some other topical stuff happens. 

7:30-8:00 – Shaw 4 CBXT – Jeopardy! The classic thinking person’s answer-and-question quiz, developed by Merv Griffin. (Game Show).

Important note: even during the on the couch edition, if you don't phrase your answers in the form of a question, you don't get the points.

If I hadn't watched The Walking Dead at 4 A.M. Monday morning I probably would have watched that twice. Keep in mind, this is really just what I would watch, some people like Chuck for some reason.

The Oilers win a game?