The Value of the Draft Pt. 4

Okay you know the drill, this is Part 4.

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Click here for Part Three.

Click here for Part Five.

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My groundbreaking interview with the Pope

2007 Leading Scorers


Other than a reduction by one non-first rounder and the inclusion of a new undrafted player, the 2007 leading goal scorer list is statistically similar to 2008.

Once again, Table 7 is dominated by first round draft selections. 80% of the players were drafted in the first round and Jonathan Cheechoo was taken 29th overall which during some draft years would have made him a first rounder as well. 9 of the 16 first rounders were top 5 picks with five of the remaining six first rounders being selected in the first half. The average pick for goal scorers in 2007 was 11.72 which is a much higher draft selection than in 2009. The reason for this is the replacement of low drafted forwards from the sixth and seventh rounds by undrafted players, who must be removed from the calculation due to their unquantifiable status.

Dany Heatley is also just the second 50 goal scorer to not be selected first overall. To be fair though, he was taken using the second pick behind a goaltender so he as the first forward selected in his draft year.

Similar to goal scorers, 80% of the top point scorers in 2007, shown in Table 8, were selected in the first round. This is the first of the analyzed years that contains a 100 point scoring forward that was not a first round pick and two other 100 point scoring forwards that were not top 4 draft picks. St. Louis is the undrafted player and so far the only non-first rounder to crack the 100 point barrier. Marian Hossa and Joe Sakic were drafted in the first round, though not in the top 4. They were selected 12 and 15 respectively.

Even though there are only four non-first rounders in this top 20 as opposed to 2008, the fact that the sixth round is the second most represented round is bizarre. Despite the two sixth round payers, the average pick is 25.89 which remains in the first round. This is likely due to the fact that all but one of the first rounders were selected in the top 15. In addition, the top 20 leading point scorers from 2007 shown in Table 8 included four first overall picks, and three second overall. Over half of the players listed were selected by using the top five picks in their draft years.



Get ready for Part Five coming at you tomorrow!

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Click here for Part Six.

The Value of the Draft Pt. 3

Hey there sports fans, welcome to Part Three. On the off chance that you haven't been following along (yeah right), we are looking at a basic statistical analysis of player performance as it relates to draft pedigree in the NHL from the years 2006 to 2010.

Click here to review Part One.

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Click here for Part Four.

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Click here for Part Six.

Continue reading to enjoy Part Three!

2008 Leading Scorers

In the preceding year depicted in Table 5, an increase in the number of non-first round draft picks again occurred though this time in the top goal scorers list.

With the inclusion of no undrafted players and two players drafted in later rounds, the average pick jumps to 31.35; for the first time in the analysis the average takes place outside the first round. Again though, it must be stressed that 75% of the players listed in Table 5 were first round picks and a consistent 11 were selected using top 5 picks. The rarity of a sixth or seventh round player performing at an elite level makes them statistically interchangeable with undrafted forwards. Examining the leading point scorers in Table 6 leads to another increase in non-first round players.

Also of note, Jarome Iginla is the first leading goal scorer listed, who scored 50 or more goals in a season but was not a first overall draft pick. This is astonishing and clearly demonstrates the value associated with owning the first pick in any given NHL Entry Draft. While he was not selected first, Iginla was expected to perform at an elite level as he was drafted eleventh overall.

Another 10% drop in first round players brings the total to 65% for point scorers in 2008, as seen in Table 6. Oddly enough the sixth round is the third most represented round with two players, Alfredsson and Datsyuk. More statistical drops are evident in Table 6 with only 10 players selected in the top 5 picks and 12 in the first half of the first round. It is no surprise that the average draft selection drops to 37.2 putting the average solidly in the second round. Table 6 includes fewer first round draft picks an further analysis shows that the age of individual players may be a factor. The 2008 table is populated by many more late-20s early-30s players and less players younger that 25. This is especially prevalent in the non-first rounder outliers.

Seventh rounder Zetterberg was 28, sixth rounders Datsyuk and Alfredsson were 30 and 36 respectively and the undrafted St. Louis was 33 years old. With younger players dominating much of the scoring in 2009 and 2010 it can be said that there is evidence that points to a youth movement in elite forwards in the NHL. Much of this has to do with the lockout and subsequent implementation of a salary cap which will be discussed further in the concluding arguments.

That is it for Part 3 y'all. Hope you enjoyed it, stay tuned for Part Four AKA The year 2007.

Click here for Part One.

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Click here for Part Six.

Mt. Goatmore - The Edmonton Oilers Edition

By Dan Moser

(Editors note: I've been sitting on this gem of a post for a long time now. I was planning on waiting until after our annual (this blog could last a couple years right?) season preview posts but unfortunately, the guest blogger is taking his sweet ass time, come on bud, I know you're not busy, I can see you playing NHL09 from my "desk"!
-DM) 

Welcome to Mt. Goatmore! If you only read the terrible blogs (that was nice, I didn't link anyone!) and avoid the good ones, you probably missed Mt. Puckmore features posted during the summer by Yahoo! Sports Blog, Puck Daddy and Editor, Greg Wyshynski.This post has been designed as a spoof of the successful and fun Mt. Puckmore pieces in which the four faces of each NHL franchise were discussed and displayed in a Photoshoped picture.

Praising four players really doesn't seem like the appropriate style for Oiler Spill though, so we have created Mt. Goatmore, which features the four players or coaches, or management, that are no longer with the NHL team, but have helped improve the team, by no longer being team members. That was a confusing sentence. Simply put, the Edmonton Oilers are a better team than they were last year because these four individuals are no longer present. Anyway, enjoy Mt. Goatmore, and if you reader(s) enjoy it, this may not be the last installment.

Also credit needs to be given where credit is due, the stunning image above was created by Photoshop wizard Josh Moser. If you can, check out his Photoshop album.

Patrick O'Sullivan

There are no photos on Google of Patrick O'Sullivan celebrating goals as an Oiler

According to this blog, hating on O'Sullivan seems to be my new favorite thing. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but Patrick O'Sullivan's play really bothered me last season. His 34 points last season helped him on his way to his worst statistical season since his rookie campaign in 2006/07 when he split time in the AHL. Furthermore, his 11 goals just made me sad. 

Now, I understand Edmonton was not the easiest place to play last season, but when things aren't going well for you offensively you have to get out there, work on other parts of your game and work hard in practice. If you think Patrick O'Sullivan did anything to even try to better his game last season please present your source material, and if you spoke to him one night at a bar or something like that it doesn't count.  

So how are the Oilers better without POS this season? I understand that not every player has to play 2-way hockey, and it is okay for some to be purely offensive players, but there is a catch. If you don't play 2-way hockey, and you just float around the neutral zone watching your team get scored against on a nightly basis and not providing any offence to speak of, it is not okay. Removing a player of this ilk from your roster will give you a better team.  

Pat Quinn

Despite what is written below, if Quinn brings back that duster I'd hire him in a second

Now this is just my opinion (Ed note: no kidding idiot, this is your blog!) but I think some of Quinn's coaching tactics were a little outdated. Obviously I am not an NHL coach or anything but some of his on-ice decisions seems a little odd to me, goalie selection on some nights, what lines certain players were on, the ridiculous amount of time Shawn Horcoff spent on the ice. Maybe it was his association with breaking Bobby Orr, and coaching the Leafs but I was no fan of Quinn's during the hiring process. I thought coaching had passed him by, and I was hoping Tom Renney would get the job (okay, this is where a link would be to a previous post from last season when I said I was in favour of Renney being Head Coach. This blog is too new though so just take my word on it please. Plus, I would never want to be known as the blogger that does douchey things like that.).

Like many of you, I did however enjoy Quinn's press conferences. They were often full of hilarious quotes and soundbites. They weren't funny in a Jim Mora, John Tortorella way though, it was more like when a grandparent yells at a cloud, or misplaces his slippers while they are on his feet. You know, a senior moment.

Yeah I know a lot of people were not happy about the way Pat Quinn was let go, but I disagree with them and let's be honest folks, he's making some Extra money anyway. TRIDENT!

Ethan Moreau

Former Captain Ethan Moreau in his regular game-time attire

I don't remember the last time the Oilers had a Captain that was a healthy scratch. I could probably leave it at that but I may as well elaborate. There was a time when I loved Ethan Moreau's game. The guy was pure energy and he had a knack for scoring short-handed goals, then he got the C and everything changed. Maybe it was the added pressure, maybe it was the long list of injuries, maybe it was just the fact that he got older, whatever it was his play and attitude started hurting the team.

When he played he seemed to spend most of the game in the penalty box, and not in a good way. Then he took a dreaded puck to the face

During post game interviews he always seemed to be blaming someone else, which as Roberto Luongo will tell you, is very unbecoming of a team captain. Rumours started swirling that he created a riff in the dressing room between the young and the old players, that's never good for a rebuilding team. Regardless of what really happened in the room, for the Oilers to change their image going forward they needed to shed their captain. Moreau was put on waivers, and for some reason Scott Howson was nice enough to pick him up. Once in Columbus he continued to complain about the Oilers. Classy Captain.  

Robert Nilsson

Former Oilers Cole (L) and Nilsson (R) backchecking two seasons ago

Another former Oiler who came with so much promise and left with so much disgrace. When Nilsson joined the team it looked like he would be the best part of the return for Ryan Smyth, those feelings would eventually pass. To summarize his stay in Edmonton, see my thoughts on Patrick O'Sullivan, but add a little bit more success, and a little bit more offensive talent. By the time he left the team, my favourite part of Robert Nilsson's game was that people were calling him Bobby and his part in this classic video.

Nilsson reminds me a lot of a less talented version of his father and former Edmonton Oiler Scout Kenta "The Magic Man" Nilsson. He had the same fundamental flaw that helped his father earn that nickname. Guy could be a magician with the puck, but was also guilty of having a great disappearing act. Now you see him, now you don't.

To prove what I really know about hockey, I thought an NHL team would sign Robert Nilsson for sure. Oh well, on the plus side that classic video was correct, you're gonna go far kid, all the way to Russia.

Honourable mention to Sheldon Souray. Honestly though the team would probably be better with him IN the lineup, and technically speaking he is still part of the team, or at least on the payroll.